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Projects : CUREE-Kajima Joint Research Program
PHASE V RESEARCH REPORT

CKIV-01: Including Earthquake Risk Perception in Risk Reduction Modeling

Robert L. Nigbor (University of Southern California); Robert A. Olson (Robert Olson Associates); Masamitsu Miyamura (Kobori Research Complex); Kaoru Mizukoshi (Kajima Corporation); Narito Kurata (Kobori Research Complex), and John Adams (RAND)

Resistance to investing in earthquake hazard mitigation, such as strengthening or replacing existing buildings and facilities, is common in both Japan and the U.S. The challenge is to find effective ways to change values and processes so loss prevention becomes an important organizational and community goal that results in decision-makers giving higher priority and greater resources to mitigation.

Researchers in both the U.S. and Japan are developing methodologies for Performance-Based Earthquake Engineering (PBEE), a relatively new concept that facilitates the design of structures and systems for specific earthquake performance levels. However, the more rigorous PBEE formulation for the "engineering benefit" is only one of the inputs to the decision process for specific mitigation action. Other inputs to the decision process come from the social, economic, and political issues that affect those making the decision. Therefore, a multidisciplinary approach is needed to understand mitigation actions and therefore overall risk reduction.

Our work focused on defining the decision process of key decision-makers in responsible and authoritative positions in moderate to large private companies (the "unit of analysis"). Their decisions include investing in earthquake loss prevention strategies and technologies as part of new construction or retrofitting/rehabilitation projects. We then propose a more generalized framework for a "Community Earthquake Risk Reduction Model (CERRM)," based upon the multiple and varied inputs to decision and action. The CERRM could provide a framework for the evaluation of the relative effects of different engineering, social, economic, or political actions on the earthquake risk of a community.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

INTRODUCTION
- Approach
- Report Overview

RISK PERCEPTION BACKGROUND
- Findings from Literature Review

INITIAL MITIGATION DECISION MODEL
- Initial Qualitative Model
- Initial Quantitative Model

KEY PERSON INTERVIEWS
- Interview Method
- Summary of U.S. Interviews
- Summary of Japan Interviews
- Interview Synthesis
- Using the Interview Results

WORKSHOP
- Workshop Participants
- Workshop Venue and Agenda
- Workshop Results and Recommendations

PROPOSED FRAMEWORK MODEL
- Hypothesis
- Qualitative Decision Tree
- Quantitative Framework Model for a Single Mitigation Action
- Extension to a Community Risk Reduction Model

CONCLUSIONS

REFERENCES

APPENDIX A: Abstracts of Selected References
APPENDIX B: Key Person Interviews
APPENDIX C: Workshop Summary and Results
APPENDIX D: Mitigation Decision Modeling Example

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Consortium of Universities for Research in Earthquake Engineering
last updated 02.20.15